Keys to Handicapping the 21st Breeders’ Cup

Pace analysis and other race handicapping nuggets for the 2004 Breeders Cup World Thoroughbred Championships.

• $2 Million Distaff
• $1 Million Juvenile Fillies
• $1.5 Million Mile
• $1.5 Million Sprint
• $1 Million Filly & Mare Turf
• $1.5 Million Juvenile
• $2 Million Turf
• $4 Million Classic

By GREG MELIKOV - author of the Horses To Watch weekly report.

Handicapping the Breeders’ Cup World Thoroughbred Championships on Oct. 30 at Lone Star Park is no ride in the park. One major observation: Only six horses with layoffs longer than 60 days have captured BC races. Here’s more advice, including how Lone Star Park has played since 2002, which should help narrow your choices in the eight races:

$2 Million Distaff, 1 1/8 miles, 3-year-olds and up: Favorites have dominated, with 16 winners going off at less than 3-1; eight were odds-on. No European-based horses have triumphed. Nine winners were based in California, seven in New York, three in the Midwest and one in Canada. Five 3-year-olds have scored. Most winners in Lone Star routes were within three lengths of the leader at the second call since 2002, according to Bloodstock Research (BRISnet), while tactical speed is important because few closers did well around two turns.

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$1 Million Juvenile Fillies, 1 1/16 miles: This is an all American race – no invader has won. Look for pedigree screaming stamina. Seven returned double-digit payoffs.

From a historical standpoint, the winner will likely break from outside post 3 and need a late kick. However, only 19 percent going this distance at the track led at every call, BRISnet says, while inside posts did best.

$1.5 Million Mile, on the turf, 3-year-olds and up: Seventeen different horses have won in 20 runnings, including nine bred in Europe. Eight actually based overseas went to the winner’s circle. Only Lure in 1992 was in front at every call; he repeated in ’93, but stalked pace-setting Ski Paradise until taking over near the half-mile pole. Inside posts hold a distinct advantage at this track while stalkers and closers have won a majority of races the last couple years, BRISnet says, but wire-to-wire jobs were only 18 percent.

$1.5 Million Sprint, six furlongs, 3-year-olds and up: Every winner has scored at the distance during 2004 and has at least a stakes victory. Eleven scored off a loss, but no winner has come into the race off an unplaced finish since Desert Stormer in 1990. Ten cut back from seven furlongs and three from 6 ½ furlongs. No running style has dominated. There have been four wire-to-wire triumphs while another four have led at nearly every call and six have closed from the back of the pack. The track plays surprisingly fair with 31 percent wiring the fields, BRISnet says, but many winners came from stalkers and mid-pack runners.

$1 Million Filly & Mare Turf, 1¼ miles, 3-year-olds and up: Three favorites won. With only five runnings, there’s no distinct pattern. All winners were at least 5 ¾ lengths behind at the first call. Not too many long distance grass races are staged at this Texas oval so rely on class and form.

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CLick here for Lone Star Park horse racing selections - part of $9.95 monthly Horse Betting Tip Sheets subscription. Also watch out for the Special Breeders Cup 2004 Handicapping Feature, a $25 special report on all Breeders Cup races with race pace analysis and horse betting recommendations. Only from Horse Betting Tip Sheets.
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$1.5 Million Juvenile, 1 1/16 miles: Endurance, like in the Juvenile Fillies, will play a major factor. Most results have been chalky: 16 winners were among the top three choices. Tactical speed is a big plus at this track. One-run closers haven’t done well while wire-to-wire winners did a bit better.

$2 Million Turf, 1 ½ miles, 3-year-olds and up: Eleven European-bred horses have won. Those making their last start overseas scored eight times, including the last five in a row, which is the same number of triumphant post-time favorites. Nine winners either broke from the inside three posts or from the eighth slot and outward. Like in the Filly & Mare Turf, rely on class and form.

$4 Million Classic, 1 ¼ miles, 3-year-olds and up: Post-time favorites have triumphed only five times and not since Skip Away in ’97. Eleven winners paid more than $10. There is only one official wire-to-wire winner, Black Tie Affair (’91), who had the longest layoff – 49 days. No horse who stayed away 50 days or longer and didn’t a race at the distance has visited the winner’s circle. Seven from posts 10 to 14 triumphed. Tactical speed is most important.

Related story: Lone Star Park, an Inside Look

Greg Melikov is a a retired newspaperman who has been writing about thoroughbreds for publications and websites for a decade. Greg says

"I’ve been a racing fan since 13 when I saw 1948 Triple Crown winner Citation whip 20 older horses at old Arlington Park."